Montreal Canadiens

The Lecavalier mirage

It is the rumour, that will not go away. For well over two years now, there has been a persistent rumours that have circulated pertaining to the Canadiens strong interest in acquiring Vincent Lecavalier from Tampa Bay. Lecavalier’s off season sigining of an 11 year contract extension for 85 million, did little to quell the undercurrent of speculation that a blockbuster trade between the two teams was imminent. Rumours hit a feverish high at the trade deadline, when Bob Gainey confirmed that Tampa had made indirect inquiries regarding the Habs level of interest in acquiring Lecavalier. Despite, Gainey’s assertion that the Canadiens have not directly expressed an interest in Lecavalier, fans and media continue to extroll the virtues, and necessity of acquiring the Lightning center, no matter what the cost. The reality is, Lecavalier is not the panacea for the Canadiens. In fact, a trade for Lecavalier would perhaps do more harm than good for the franchise.

In a salary cap world, judicious management of assets is an essential ingredient for success. Hockey is a team sport. Putting a disproportionate of salary onto one player is a receipe for a unbalanced and unsuccesful team. Atlanta, Tampa, Ottawa, New York Rangers are all examples of teams that have committed far too much salary cap space to one or two players. In doing so, those teams lack balance and depth. Those teams have one superstar, but the drop off in talent beyond a few players is dramatic, and with little manouverability in terms of salary, the one dimensional teams cannot address their other issues.

Lecavalier is desired, by many in the Montreal media, of course, for what he offers. Lecavalier, is a sleek elegant centerman, reminiscent, of another former great Hab superstar, the incomparable, Jean Beliveau. Lecavalier challenges defenders with a variety of high end skills: explosive speed, a blistering wrist shot, unparalleled stickhandling capabilites, and an ability to play a power game, creating time and space for himself and his linemates. As a center, he is the total package. At age 28, just entering his prime, Lecavalier’s assets become even more attractive when compared to the Canadiens top end players, Koivu and Kovalev, both of whom are entering the downslope of their respectiver careers.

Unquestionably, the Habs do need an upgrade on Koivu and Kovalev. Having numners 11 and 27 as the Habs two best players represent the teams most fundamental structural problem. Koivu is no longer a dominant number one centerman. Kovalev, despite his artistic brilliance on the ice, has never produced at a pace which would be considered a first line scoring threat. Kovalev, is more ideally suited to be a complementary offensive producer in a secondary role.

Still, despite the assertions that the Canadiens would be better off, without Koivu and Kovalev, (both of whom are free agents at year end) replaced by Lecavalier, via a trade, upon closer scrutiny does not hold water. Certainly, if the Habs decided not to resign Koivu and Kovalev, there would be a cost savings of 9.2 million, offsetting Lecavlier’s salary of 7.7 million a season. Nonetheless, to acquire, the great Vinny, the Habs would have to package the likes of Plekanec, Higgins, a high draft pick, and perhaps, a top end prospect. Picture the Canadiens, without, Koivu,Kovalev,Plekanec,Higgins a number one draft pick in 2010, and a prospect (Paccioretty, or Subban, or Mcdonaugh) all for Lecavalier. The Habs greatest asset, team depth would be decimated, all for one star, with precious little talent surrounding him.

Interestingly, Lecavalier’s career point per game totals, average 0.85. Kovalev, is at 0.82 ppg, Koivu averages 0.81 ppg totals. Obviously, Lecavalier brings another dimension to his game that Koivu at his age and stature cannot match, a imposing physical power game down low. Lecavalier brings a physical endurance and consistent energy to his game, that Koivu with a lot of mileage on his smaller frame cannot match on a game to game basis at this stage of his career. Still, with an uncertain economic future for the NHL, and a salary cap that is sure to diminish in the near future, being locked into a salary averaging 7.7 million a year for the next 10 years, will certainly negate salary cap flexibility. Fiscal freedom, is an asset that Gainey quite rightly perceives as a major advantage in building and ensuring long term success.

The dilemma Gainey faces, is the absolute need to upgrade the veteran core of the team, of which Koivu and Kovalev are key components. Both players at times this season looked as though they have lost a step, relying more than ever on their savvy, and ability to pick their spots for high energy contributions. Still, to take on a contract that could cripple the team for years to come, no matter how attractive the asset is, does not seem like a insightful move on to its own. Compunding the situation, is the fact that Montreal remains, an unattractive destination for top end free agents. Additionally, to acquire any second tier ufa’s, Gainey often hs to significantly overpay (Hamrlik, as an example) to bring them in. As a result, ufa acquisitions further strain a tight salary structure.

The pursuit of Lecavalier would appear to be an unrealisitic one. The only viable scenario, would be if Gainey were able to sign Koivu and Kovalev at short one or two year terms, worth approximately no more than 3.5 million per year for each player. This would enable Gainey to perhaps deal the Kostitsyn brothers and Hamrlik and a draft pick for Lecavalier. It is highly unlikely, Tampa would be interested in taking back Hamrlik’s salary, and they probably could get more in value for Vinny, elsewhere.

At the end of the day, no matter how appealing the thought of Lecavalier in a Canadiens jersey, without an ability to maintain a strong supporting cast (keep in mind in another year Price, Latendresse, Halak, S.Kostitsyn, Lapierre, all of whom have bargin basement contracts, all become rfa’s with siginficant pay increases highly probable) it would be a disasterous decision, for the franchise. The illusion of acquiring Lecavalier, is more attractive than the reality.