Montreal Canadiens

Stats don’t always lie

In a small sample, stats can often be misleading and flawed process. Incorporating several pieces of data, can provide better insight into performance. One way to examine the performance of a player, is to examine his contribution/impact to the teams productivity when on the ice versus when he is off the ice. To that end, goals scored, goals given up, and shots on goal for and against, along with shots for and against, taken as a whole can provide some perspective into player effectiveness. The data does serve to some extent to illuminate some individual player perfomances, and highlight the strengths and weaknesses of the Habs as a whole.

Robert Lang, proved to be a great addition to the Habs, and he will be difficult to replace. The Habs scored an average of 2.88 goals when he was on the ice, while only scoring 2.12 goals when he was off the ice. His production often came while being matched up against the offensive stars of the opposition. Although not a shut down checking center, as evidenced by the fact the Habs were outshot by an average of 28 to 24 when he was on the ice, no denying his offensive production.

The numbers for Max Pacioretty are striking. The Habs gpg was 2.60, versus only 2.12 when he was not on the ice. The Canadiens gave up 2.86 goals per 60 minutes when he was not on the ice, versus only allowing 2.31 goals when he was on the ice. Additionally, Pacioretty was only one of a handful of Habs that saw the Canadiens out shoot their opposition when he was on the ice, by a plus 4 ratio. Pacioretty brings a physical element that is in short supply amongst the Habs skill forwards. He is a well rounded playmaker who senses the game very well, while adding a gritty style to complement his ability to handle an uptempo game. For the Habs to advance deep into the playoffs, Pacioretty needs to be positioned amongst the top two forward units.

Despite the presence of Alex Kovalev,and the teams youth core, Saku Koivu is still the offensive leader of the team. The statistical data illustrates the point, that in many respects the team will go as far as the captain can carry the Canadiens. The Habs score 2.98 goals with Koivu, while only scoring 1.99 without his presence.

Not surprisingly, the data illuminates the positive impact of Matthieu Schneider to the teams offense, as only Tanguay,Koivu and Andrei Kostitsyn generate more goals while on the ice, than Gainey’s recent acquisition. What was a surprising revelation, was the stats attached to Komisarek. The common perception is that Komisarek has struggled this season. Bad defensive reads and positioning has certainly put a strain on the Habs defensive play. Nonetheless, when Komi is off the ice, the teams goals against spike up to 3.18, versus only 2.43 goals against when he is playing. No other player on the team has that significant a ratio in terms of goals for and against. Komisarek’s shot blocking, long reach and physical play do negate to some extent his poor positioning. If Komisarek and Hamrlik could both fully find their game, it would mitigate Gainey’s need to add another competent defenseman.

At this point, for the Habs to get to the finals, in all probability have to defeat the Flyers, New Jersey and the Bruins, not an easy task. Advancing past those teams will prove more difficult, if the rumour mill proves correct and any of those teams make significant upgrades. Boston is in the hunt for Pronger, Philly is looking at Lehtonen or Backstrom to solve their goaltending issues.
The Canadiens appear to need an elite physicaly imposing center, and possibly another reliable defenseman. The long term injury to Lang, gives the team approximately 3.7 million in cap space, enough to add one impact player.

A player that could potentially address the pressing issue of lack of size and grit, and take some of the offensive pressure off of Koivu, would be Olli Jokinen. Jokinen is having an off season in Phoenix, and has a reputation of being difficult. The financially strapped franchise may be amenable to trading Jokinen, whose trade value has been degraded over the year. He would fit in with the Habs uptempo game, as he has an explosive acceleration gear, and can execute at any speed. His physical presence would open up space for his linemates, and would give the Canadiens three strong scoring units.

It is debatable whether the Habs with their current roster could stand the rigours of 4 playoff rounds. Too many players are having uneven seasons. Gainey gave the team a shot of adrenalin with the Schneider trade. It would appear another pickup may be required to get the team to the promised land.