Boston/Montreal first round analysis
April 8th, 2008 by wrightCanadiens dominated the Bruins in their regular season match ups, winning all 8 games. Much to the Bruins chargin, most of the games were not even close. Now the two teams hook up in round one of the playoffs. On the surface, there is not much to suggest that the the playoffs will provide any different outcome. Nonetheless there are a few key factors to examine, that might provide a possibility of a more competitive series than most are anticipating.
Zedeno Chara is the epicenter of the Bruins. he averages over 25 minutes of icetime per game, and the Bruins defensive game flows through him. The Canadiens were extremely effective in degrading Chara’s performance against them this season. Chara was a minus 6 in the 8 regular season matchups. The weakness to Chara’s game is his lateral mobility and his inability to make quick tight turns against quick moving forwards, of which the Canadiens have in abundance. If Chara can impose his physicality on the Hab forwards early on in the season, it may negate some of the speed game which is such an asset to Montreal. Based on the histroical evidence, it is not likely that Chara will be able to intimidate the Canadiens forwards, thus once again causing major problems for the Bruins defensive zone coverage.
Faceoffs: Through the last 6 games between the two teams, the Canadiens owned the faceoff circle, winning 55 percent of the draws. Koivu’s absence in the series, could tip the faceoff situation towards the Bruins, as the Canadiens captain is the teams most reliable faceoff centerman. The question remains, even if the Bruins are gaining early possession of the puck following a faceoff, do they have the skill level to follow through with strong creative plays to give the Canadiens major difficulties?
Physical issues: the Bruins are not the “big bad Bruins” of yesteryear, outside of Lucic, the Bruins upfront are quite undersized. Alexsson,Sturm,Kessel,Sobotka,Krejci and others are not going to intimidate anyone physically. One of the major reasons for the Habs dominance over the Bruins this season, was the fact that the Habs feature a very mobile physically demanding defense. Hamrlik,Komisarek, O’Bryne all have a physical size advantage over the majority of the Bruin forwards, and can impose a punishing physical component to their game. Frequently in games between the teams this season, Bruin forwards were kept to the perimeter and not getting high quality shots in close on Canadiens goaltenders. Once again, the Canadiens seem to have an advantage in this area.
Depth: All season long Carbo rolled out 4 forward units for the Habs. When Koivu and Ryder went down with injuries, the team had the depth to replace those players without the overall capabilities of the team suffering. Claude Julien relegated his fourht line players to less than 7 minutes of icetime a game. Compounding the Bruins problems is the loss of a very effective winger in Kobasew (very efficent against the Habs) to an injury that will keep him out of the series.
The Grey zone: The 10 foot area in front of the blueline is a critical area in any hockey game, as most turnovers occur in this area resulting in odd man breaks the other way. The Bruins are a very succesful trapping team, and their style of play often causes turnovers in this area. Throughout the season, the Habs puck movement, overall team speed and skill succesfully negated turnovers in this area, negating one of the Bruins major strenghts. It would appear likely, that the Habs overall skill level will enable them to maintain puck possession in this area, putting greater pressure on the somewhat slow moving Bruin defense.
Goaltending: The most critical component for playoff success. Thomas for the Bruins, and Price for the Canadiens offer completely different styles. Thomas is combative, almost out ocf control style gets results. Whereas Price is economical and fluid in his movements. The Bruins will try to get him off his game by getting traffic in front of him. If there is a weakness to Price’s game, is that he sometimes does not track the puck well with bodies in front of him. The dilemma the Bruins face, is that they were one of the lowest scoring teams in the league this season, and don’t possess too major dangerous offensive players. All season long, the Habs were able to get to Thomas, and given the depth of the Canadiens offense it would appear they have the capabilities to do so again against Thomas in the first round of the playoffs.
There is a wide gulf in terms of talent between these two teams. The Bruins made the playoffs based on a disciplined defensive game, and a strong work ethic, to offset crippling injuries and a shortage of elite level talent. The Habs boost the second strongest offense in the NHL, the best powerplay and a wide variety of top level talent both upfront and on the blueline.
Hard to envision, a Bruin upset in this series. For that to happen, the immaturity of the Canadiens youth, combined with the pressure of being the prohibitive favorite, coinciding with Thomas having an extraordinary series and Price unravelling would appear to be the only way the Bruins advance. The Bruins might get a lift if Patrice Bergeron returns from injury and gives an inspirational performance. The Bruins tight defensive system may keep them in this series longer than conventional wisdom would dictate, but in the end, the Canadiens have too much talent. Canadiens in 6.
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