Montreal Canadiens

The potential achilles’ heel for the Canadiens

The lack of consistent offensive production from Koivu and Higgins is perceived by many to be the most significant issue that could derail the Canadiens capabilities of a succesful playoff run. The theory is, that without Koivu and Higgins providing a secondary scoring threat, the Habs are morphing into a one line offensive team. As such, the opposition will begin to devise strategies to contain the Habs most dangerous offensive unit, the Plekanec line, thus neutralizing the engine that drives the teams offense. There is some merit to this perception. Historically, teams that are heavily dependent on one line to provide the bulk of the offense usually do not achieve much post season success. Theories abound as to the ineffectiveness of Higgins and Koivu. Undisclosed injuries, lack of chemistry with linemate Michael Ryder, erosion of confidence, age catching up with Koivu as he enters the twilight of his career. All the above conjectures may hold some merit. Perhaps, though, the root cause of the problem is due to the lack of an effective checking line for the Habs.

Last season, the Habs had an effective checking unit in Bonk, Johnson and Perezhogin, that took on the role of checking the oppositions top offensive units. The unit had success, as all three members of the line had a positive plus minus rating, significant given the fact that as a team, the Habs had a massive minus number in that category. This season, with all three players no longer on the team, Carbonneau has not been able to find an efficent checking line. As evidenced by the numbers compiled by “behind the net.ca”, amongst all Hab forwards, Higgins and Koivu consistently match up against the best forwards in the league. The quality of opposition index indicates that only Smolinski, Dandenault, Begin and or Kostopolous are the only other Hab forwards entrusted with 5 on 5 icetime against elite level opponents. The problem for the Canadiens is the fact that the Smolinski checking line has been less than sterling in shutting down advesaries. The struggles of the checking line is illuminated in three categories that define puck possession and territorial advantage: giveaway/takeaway ratio, a players plus minus record, and the corsi index, ( a ratio based on shots directed at the opposition goal versus shot directed at your own teams net).
player takeaway/giveaway t/- corsi index
Begin 1.75 1 -10
Kostopolous 1.22 -8 -4
Smolinski 0.50 -5 -8.2
Dandenault 1.21 -9 -14.1

As evidenced, the above mentioned players have badly struggled to keep the puck out of the Habs zone,and more importantly out of the teams net. As a result, Carbo has given greater defensive responsibilites to Koivu and Higgins, which compromises the offensive capabilities of the two players.

Added defensive responsibilities, do not totally absolve the captain and assistant captain of their substandard offensive contributions. Most worriesome is the fact that Koivu simply does seem to be able to do the things that he used to do so well. Koivu seems to have lost a step. He is dependent on utilizing his stick to gain leverage to buy time to make a play. Unfortunately under the new NHL rules putting a stick around the mid section of an opponent is now a penalty, and Koivu has taken frequent penalties, exposing his declining foot speed. Additionally, Koivu is frequently the first player off the ice on a line change, perhaps indicating a conditioning/stamina issue. Both Higgins and Koivu have not shown a consistent drive to the net. Higgins has often been guilty of passing off the puck and then remaining stationary, as opposed to using his speed to find a dead zone in behind the oppositions defense. Too often his shots are low percentage, taken from the perimeter. Puck retrevial, and strength on their skates, both hallmarks of Koivu and Higgins are not an asset for either player at the moment.

For the Canadiens to have any degree of post season success, both Higgins and Koivu need to recapture their play from the first half of the ‘06-07 season, when they were the most dangerous offensive weapons for the Canadiens. Perhaps, Kovalev can pass on his secret for reinvigorating Higgins and Koivu, if not, despite having alot of assets, the Habs could be vulnerable.