Montreal Canadiens

A perspective on Habs 5 on 5 play

The Montreal Canadiens achilles heal last season, was the teams porous 5 on 5 play. Despite having one of the most potent powerplays in the league,as a team the Habs were a horrid minus 40 in even strength situations. The Habs inability to play more efficently on 5 on 5 situations ultimately played the most signifcant part in derailing a playoff berth for the club. This season, the club has a much improved 5 on 5 record, with a cumulative minus 9 at even strength, contributing to the Habs 7th best overall record in the NHL.

There are 2 important statistical peices of data which give greater insight into which players are performing effectively in 5 on 5 situations. The Corsi index is like a plus minus in terms of shots directed at the net by your team minus the amount of shots the opposition directs at your team. Secondly, the quality of opposition index a player faces provides insight into the difficulty of the players icetime. These stats provide context to goal for and against differential.

The Corsi index (devised by former Sabre goalie Jim Corsi) provides a detailed perspective on which players are creating a territorial advantage for their team by creating more scoring chances via shots on goal, missed shots and forcing the opposition to block shots.

Behind the net.ca has the Habs total 5 on 5 numbers. When examining the numbers certain conclusions can be made. Primarily, as expected Markov and Komisarek are facing the toughest opposition on a game by game basis. More interestingly though, is the fact that Carbonneau has relied heavily on two role players, Dandenault and Smolinski to play significant minutes against the oppositions top players. Neither Dandenault or Smolinski has fared well in that role. Both players are hemroging, with Dandenault a minus 11 and a minus 15.0 on the Corsi index, the worst rating on the team. Smolinski is not far behind with a minus 8 in terms of goals for and against and a minus 9.0 on the Corsi index. One wonders why Carbonneau continues to entrust those two players with as much responsibilties on 5 on 5 situations.

Roman Hamrlik is a plus one, and a 1.7 positive on the Corsi index. He continues to prove to be one of the most underrated unrestricted free agent pickups of the season. The Habs improved even strength play is partly attributable to Hamrlik’s self assured low risk high percentage play in the Habs defensive zone. A substantial upgrade over Souray in terms of defensive zone coverage.

The Koivu/Higgins/Ryder line has attracted a lot of criticism for uneven offensive productivity. Nonetheless they have often been Carbonneau’s primary choice to act as a shut down unit against the oppositions top offensive players. There combined plus minus is a respectable minus 2 and are a positive on the Corsi index.

Many Hab fans lamented the recent demotion of Chipchura to the clubs AHL affiliate. The reality is that Chipchura was struggling. Despite constantly playing against the oppositions weakest players, Chipchura was a minus 5 and a minus 10.1 on the Corsi index. Additionally his faceoff winning percentage was well below 50 percent.

Not surprisingly, the Habs top unit of Plekanec/Kovalev/Kostitysn have been the nost productive forward unit for the team. Opposition coaches seem to have recognized this fact and in recent weeks have been putting their top units out against this forward combination. Future success by the Habs will be dictated by how well the Plekanec line responds to playing against stronger competition.

When analyzing the data, that there is a clear demarcation, between the Habs top 6 forwards, and the teams top 3 defenseman versus the bottom half of the lineup, in terms of productivity and territorial play. The problem is, that Carbonneau continues to give too much icetime to the teams third and fourth line forwards, and his third defense pairing. Carbonneau is an advocate for continually rolling 4 lines and 3 sets of defense pairings no matter what the game situation might be. Most recently against Pittsburgh, despite trailing 1-0, Carbonneau continued to utilize his fourth line on a regular shift basis late in the game, as opposed to double shifting the Plekanec line. A less egalitarian approach might yield more benefical results for a team trying to solidify a playoff position.