Montreal Canadiens

Aftermath

Bob Gainey has a well deserved reputation for being inscrutable when it comes to his strategies and evaluation of personnel for the Montreal Canadiens. Yesterday’s season ending press conference and post mortem on the 2007-08 season was no exception. For the most part Gainey spoke in broad generalities, however at times he did let his guard down and provided some insights into his off season priorities for upgrading the team.

Amongst Gainey’s revealing comments was the fact that he felt the team was set in goal, and had long term sustainability on defense, and that he would attempt to strengthen the team on the forward units. Additionally, the team from his perception was built on speed, quickness, opportunism and intelligence. He openly scoffed athe notion that the team was not rugged enough to effectively compete for the Stanley Cup. Gainey stated ” we want to play a fast game. We are going to play to score, and beat you within the rules”. From the aforementioned comments, it would appear that Gainey is looking to add more speed and skill upfront, as opposed to restructuring the team along more physical lines. Gainey seemingly determined that the team will continue to be built around speed and skill, and that he will make future moves with the philosophy of agumenting those assets. Additionally, Gainey commented that the organization was comfortable with its present salary structure, within the constrictions of the salary cap. Most significantly, Gainey added, we don’t have any 15 year contracts. A hallmark of the Gainey administrations philosophy on the salary cap is maintaining payroll flexibility. It is unlikely, that Gainey will box himself in to protracted long term contracts.

When one analyzes Gainey’s comments, it would appear that he is prepared to target high skill, veteran unrestricted free agent forwards in the upcoming off season. The most notable candidates that seem to fit into Gainey’s criterion would be: Sundin, Rolston and possibly Jagr. All three are 36 years of age, and as such would not require long term deals. As a result, it would enable Gainey to maintain his coveted payroll flexibility which will be a asset come 2009, when the likes of Plekanec, Higgins and Komisarek will all be eligible for free agency, and will require substantial pay increases to remain members of the Canadiens organization. In Sundin, the Habs would add a true world class player. A power center who is able to maintain position down low and create havoc in front of the opposition goal. Sundin is familiar playing in a hockey crazed city, and along with Rolston has a reputation of being a first class individual on and off the ice. Rolston offers terrific speed, a heavy shot, sound positional player that would provide a major upgrade for the Canadiens penalty killing units. Jagr, is a bit more of a dark horse candidate for the team to pursue. Unlike, Sundin and Rolston he has a reputation for being high maintenance, and his productivity has diminished in recent seasons. Nonetheless, Jagr, as well as either Sundin and Rolston would represent substantial upgrades for the Habs. Based on salary committments, and the prerequiste pay increases to upcoming restricted free agents, Gainey will have approximately 10 million dollars to spend on enticing ufa’s to come play in Montreal.

The multi million dollar question, will this be the year that Gainey finally lands a top tier ufa? For the past two years the Canadiens have been the bridesmaid in the ufa sweepstakes. Gainey offered Shanahan, Arnott, Briere and Smyth more lucrative contracts, only to see those players select another team. This year could be different. The Canadiens effectively shed their image of a down trodden team. They are accurately perceived as a skilled young quick team on the rise. A team that is being built to be a perennial contender. Despite, the lack of depth in the upcoming unrestricted free agent market, this could be the year in which Gainey is able to sign a quality ufa. A key pick up could go along way to making the Canadiens a more complete team ready to take the next step to compete for the cup in 2008-09, the organizations centennial year.

Anatomy of a collapse

The Habs came into the series against the Bruins as prohibitive favorites, and now face a do or die seventh game Monday night at the Bell Center. A combination of factors have occured to push the Habs to the brink of elimination. Primarily, the Habs core players have underperformed in this series. Claude Julien has out coached Carbonneau at every turn through out the first round matchup. The lack of obstruction fouls called in the playoffs has become a decided advantage for the slower, less skilled Bruins. The officials more liberal allowance of interference has enabled the Bruins to negate the Habs biggest advantage: team speed.

Make no mistake, the Bruins are full value for pushing the series to a seventh game. In essence since game two of the series they have been the better team. They have out hustled, out worked and played with a far greater intensity than the Canadiens. The Canadiens have had no answer for an aggressive Bruin two man forecheck on the Canadiens defense. Time and time again the Boston forwards have won the majority of the races for loose pucks in all three zones of the ice surface. The Bruin defense has done an effective job of boxing out the Montreal forwards in the slot area in front of Thomas. Seldom in this series has Thomas had to pay for allowing big rebounds, because Habs forwards have often had a phobia about positioning in the 20 foot zone in front of the Bruin net. In essence, many Montreal forwards have become physically intimidated in this series. In game 6, Andrei Kostitsyn, in an attempt to retreive a loose puck, was thumped by Chara deep in the Bruin zone. Moments later a similar play was evolving, but Kostitsyn pulled up when he saw a hard charging Chara.The result, Bruins easily recovered puck possession and wheeled out of their zone unimpeded. Bruin physicality is dominating in this series.

The Canadiens powerplay, the most explosive aspect of their game during the regular season, has gone into hibernation in this round of the playoffs. the reason: Bruins are keying on Kovalev. The Bruins send two defenders on Kovalev, not allowing him any time or space to make a play. At every opportunity they are making Kovalev pay a physical price for puck possession. The Bruin containment has frustrated Kovalev and thrown him off his game. The Habs have made no adjustments to offset the Bruin strategy, with the result an ineffective powerplay, providing Boston with a big advantage.

Perhaps most dismaying about the Canadiens play in this series has been the persistent defensive zone coverage breakdowns. Far too frequently the Bruins have effectively cycled the puck down low for extended periods of time, with the end result a Bruin forward breaking free of coverage having wide open ice to get a quality shot on Price.

With out question, some of Carbonneau’s personnel decisions in round one have bordered on the mystifing, if not the absurd. Inexpliciably, in game 6, he opts to put in a “small” lineup, despite the fact the team has been physically harassed through out the series. So no O’byrne, Ryder or Latendresse. Instead, the tin man Briesbois who is late to every loose puck in the Canadiens zone for fear of actually having to endure some physical discomfort, gets to play and becomes a major defensive liability. Dandenault who justifiably could not get any consistent ice time during the regular season, continues to get a regular shift come playoff time, and contributes very little.

For the Canadiens to prevail in game 7, Markov, Kovalev and Price are going to have to substantially upgrade their performances. Less likely to happen, but as necessary, the Habs need to become stronger on the puck, use their team speed to put pressure on a vulnerable Bruin defense. Additionally, the Canadiens need to break down the Bruin two man forecheck deep in the Canadiens zone. The Habs centermen need to be more disciplined circling back deep into the defensive zone to provide additional support to the Habs defensemen who are being constantly pressured. Carbonneau has the advantage of last line change, at this point he needs to have either the Smolinski line or the Koivu line up against the Savard line. The Plekanec’s forward unit is being demolished by Axelsson upfront and Chara on defense. Carbo needs to be innovative to try and get his number one offensive line more favorable match ups against the less distinguished Bruin personnel. Do the aforementioned issues resolve themselves in the Canadiens favour….game 7 will provide the answer.

Boston/Montreal first round analysis

Canadiens dominated the Bruins in their regular season match ups, winning all 8 games. Much to the Bruins chargin, most of the games were not even close. Now the two teams hook up in round one of the playoffs. On the surface, there is not much to suggest that the the playoffs will provide any different outcome. Nonetheless there are a few key factors to examine, that might provide a possibility of a more competitive series than most are anticipating.

Zedeno Chara is the epicenter of the Bruins. he averages over 25 minutes of icetime per game, and the Bruins defensive game flows through him. The Canadiens were extremely effective in degrading Chara’s performance against them this season. Chara was a minus 6 in the 8 regular season matchups. The weakness to Chara’s game is his lateral mobility and his inability to make quick tight turns against quick moving forwards, of which the Canadiens have in abundance. If Chara can impose his physicality on the Hab forwards early on in the season, it may negate some of the speed game which is such an asset to Montreal. Based on the histroical evidence, it is not likely that Chara will be able to intimidate the Canadiens forwards, thus once again causing major problems for the Bruins defensive zone coverage.

Faceoffs: Through the last 6 games between the two teams, the Canadiens owned the faceoff circle, winning 55 percent of the draws. Koivu’s absence in the series, could tip the faceoff situation towards the Bruins, as the Canadiens captain is the teams most reliable faceoff centerman. The question remains, even if the Bruins are gaining early possession of the puck following a faceoff, do they have the skill level to follow through with strong creative plays to give the Canadiens major difficulties?

Physical issues: the Bruins are not the “big bad Bruins” of yesteryear, outside of Lucic, the Bruins upfront are quite undersized. Alexsson,Sturm,Kessel,Sobotka,Krejci and others are not going to intimidate anyone physically. One of the major reasons for the Habs dominance over the Bruins this season, was the fact that the Habs feature a very mobile physically demanding defense. Hamrlik,Komisarek, O’Bryne all have a physical size advantage over the majority of the Bruin forwards, and can impose a punishing physical component to their game. Frequently in games between the teams this season, Bruin forwards were kept to the perimeter and not getting high quality shots in close on Canadiens goaltenders. Once again, the Canadiens seem to have an advantage in this area.

Depth: All season long Carbo rolled out 4 forward units for the Habs. When Koivu and Ryder went down with injuries, the team had the depth to replace those players without the overall capabilities of the team suffering. Claude Julien relegated his fourht line players to less than 7 minutes of icetime a game. Compounding the Bruins problems is the loss of a very effective winger in Kobasew (very efficent against the Habs) to an injury that will keep him out of the series.

The Grey zone: The 10 foot area in front of the blueline is a critical area in any hockey game, as most turnovers occur in this area resulting in odd man breaks the other way. The Bruins are a very succesful trapping team, and their style of play often causes turnovers in this area. Throughout the season, the Habs puck movement, overall team speed and skill succesfully negated turnovers in this area, negating one of the Bruins major strenghts. It would appear likely, that the Habs overall skill level will enable them to maintain puck possession in this area, putting greater pressure on the somewhat slow moving Bruin defense.

Goaltending: The most critical component for playoff success. Thomas for the Bruins, and Price for the Canadiens offer completely different styles. Thomas is combative, almost out ocf control style gets results. Whereas Price is economical and fluid in his movements. The Bruins will try to get him off his game by getting traffic in front of him. If there is a weakness to Price’s game, is that he sometimes does not track the puck well with bodies in front of him. The dilemma the Bruins face, is that they were one of the lowest scoring teams in the league this season, and don’t possess too major dangerous offensive players. All season long, the Habs were able to get to Thomas, and given the depth of the Canadiens offense it would appear they have the capabilities to do so again against Thomas in the first round of the playoffs.

There is a wide gulf in terms of talent between these two teams. The Bruins made the playoffs based on a disciplined defensive game, and a strong work ethic, to offset crippling injuries and a shortage of elite level talent. The Habs boost the second strongest offense in the NHL, the best powerplay and a wide variety of top level talent both upfront and on the blueline.

Hard to envision, a Bruin upset in this series. For that to happen, the immaturity of the Canadiens youth, combined with the pressure of being the prohibitive favorite, coinciding with Thomas having an extraordinary series and Price unravelling would appear to be the only way the Bruins advance. The Bruins might get a lift if Patrice Bergeron returns from injury and gives an inspirational performance. The Bruins tight defensive system may keep them in this series longer than conventional wisdom would dictate, but in the end, the Canadiens have too much talent. Canadiens in 6.

The evolution of build from within

Gainey and Carbonneau are getting some very deserved accolades for the success of the Habs this season. The blueprint of emphasizing drafting and developing young talent within the organization has provided major dividends for the organization. From 2001 to 2005, the Canadiens have acquired 13 players in those drafts who are currently playing for the team. The organization wisely shunned the temptation of trading away any of their draft picks in exchange for a veteran player in order to provide a temporary quick fix. The scouting department of the team has done an extraordinary job of unearthing quality talent in the latter rounds of the draft. Tomas Plejkanec was a 71st overall pick, Mark Streit was drafted 262 overall in the 2004 draft, Sergi Kostitsyn was selected 200th in the 2005 draft, all those players have had impactful seasons for the Canadiens.

Despite, the huge dividends the Canadiens strategy of building through the draft has provided, there have been instances where Gainey and Carbonneau have come close to derailing the organizations strategy. Think in terms of where the team would be had Souray accepted Gainey’s 4 year 5.5 million dollar annual salary. An injury prone, defensive liability in Souray, as opposed to an efficent defensively sound Roman Hamrlik, who was signed only after Souray rejected Gainey’s offer. Additionally, what would have been the dynamics of the team had Daniel Briere accepted the Canadiens offseason offer of 7 million a year for 8 years. A Briere contract would have acted as a millstone on the Canadiens payroll flexibility going forward. Gainey’s ability to resign pending restricted free agents:Gorges,Halak,Kostitsyn and upcoming free agents Streit and Ryder would have been seriously compromised. As well, the Briere signing would have pushed Plekanec’s down to being the number three centerman on the team, and thus inhibiting his icetime and development. As it turned out, the non signing of Briere accelerated Plekanec’s growth, and he has had a far superior year than Briere.

As head coach, Carbonneau did not initially fully embrace the notion of giving signficant ice time to the emerging young core of the team. At the start of the season, Carbo continually attempted to have two defensive forward units, featuring Kostopolous,Latendresse and Chipchura on one line (think how slow that line was) and a second defensive unit of Smolinski,Begin and Dandenault, a unit that was highly ineffective. Until the overdue promotion of SKostitsyn in game 32 of the regular season, veteran players Begin, Smolinski,Dandenault and Kostopolous were all averaging over 14 minutes of icetime pergame. Far too many minutes for marginally talented players. It took Carbo, 14 games to move Plekanec’s on to a second line with second year player A.Kostitsyn alongside Kovalev, which became the teams best forward unit. Carbonneau, also insisted on playing veteran Brisebois on a regular basis instead of the up and coming, fast developing Josh Gorges.An injury to Brisebois,and the ineffectual play of Ryder, forced management to make some personnel moves. Once Sergi Kostitsyn and Gorges were inserted into the lineup on a regular basis, the dynamics of the team dramatically changed. The Habs went from a conservative, at times somewhat plodding defensive team, to a more puck control, creative offensive team. Over the first 30 games of the season without Gorges and SKostitsyn the Habs averaged 2.83 goals a game. With those two players in the lineup over the past 48 games (and reducing the icetime of less skilled veteran players) the Habs offense has jumped to 3.45 goals per game.

To some extent, Gainey’s offseason signings of Brisebois, Smolinski,Kostopolous and Carbonneau’s personnel playing decisions up until the mid part of the season resisted the underlying strengths of the team, its emerging youth core developed within the organization. With the young players getting a far more prominent role with increased icetime, the team is playing to its strengths.

Gainey and Carbonneau have established solid assets, but the full evolution of the teams youth core, was not totally predesigned from the offseason onward. Some things fell into place through good fortune, some ufa’s did not sign with the team, and some personnel moves were made due to injury, allowing for players like Kostitsyn and Gorges to step in. Gainey and Carbonneau have done a number of good things, but they also have had some good fortune helping along the way, which accelerated the youthful composition of the team.

Doug Jarvis : Low profile, major contributor to Habs

As he was as a player, Doug Jarvis as a coach quietly goes about his business and gets great results. The Canadiens ascendancy to one of the elite teams in the league is due in part to the unassuming, effective coaching techniques of assistant coach Jarvis. Jarvis two major responsibilities is overseeing the Habs powerplay, and the coaching of the teams defense men. The Habs defense and powerplay have been two of the most impactful elements of the teams success. That is due in no small measure to Doug Jarvis.

Since joining the team as assistant coach in 2005-06 season, Jarvis imprint on the team has been significant. As a player, Jarvis was a proficent defensive specialist who succeeded by emphasizing strong positional play. As a coach he has applied the same techniques. This season, the Habs have integrated two young defensemen: Gorges and O’bryne into the defense rotation with exceedingly positive results. Both players have continued to improve, and have made very few glaring defensive errors, despite their relative inexperience. Much credit has to go to Jarvis. O’Bryne a big physical defenseman, has not given in to temptation and put himself out of position to land a big check on a player. Rather he has incorporated Jarvis attention to maintaining strong defensive coverage, and effectively playing the angles on opposing forwards in the Canadiens zone. Despite not being exceedingly quick, O’Bryne is consistently able to mark his opponent, due in large part to the teachings of positional play by Doug Jarvis.

The Canadiens potent offense is often generated by the quick counter attack led by the teams defensemen. This season, the Habs defenders often join the rush and carry the puck deep into the attacking zone. The Habs have been one of the most succesful teams in having their defensemen sneak in deep down low creating a quality scoring chance. Despite the higher risk strategy of a defenseman moving up to become an attacking forward, the Habs seldom give up an abundance of odd man rushes into their zone. Through Jarvis’s teachings, the Hab defenders are much more confident in their decision making as to when to join the rush and when to pull back in anticipation of a turnover and an opposition counter attack.

For two years in succession, the Canadiens boost the best powerplay in the league. In a stroke of genius, Carbonneau determined that a defensive specialist (Jarvis) would be a logical choice to run the powerplay because he would be aware as to the strategies employed to negate its effectiveness. With Jarvis coaching the powerplay, the Habs have been ruthlessly efficent in exploiting the man advantage opportunities. Last season, the Canadiens relied heavily on Souray’s slapshot from the point. This season, without Souray, Jarvis adapted the powerplay, by having Kovalev as the main puck distributor. Different strategies, same results, the most dangerous powerplay in the league. With Jarvis implementing strategies, the Habs powerplay utilizes quick puck movement, with forwards and defensemen constantly rotating and finding open areas on the ice that maxamize quality scoring opportunities. Once again, Jarvis adherance to positional play highlites the success of the Habs powerplay.

As a player for the Montreal Canadiens during the teams dynasty of the late ’70’s, Jarvis was often overshadowed by the more high profile players, Lafleur, Shutt,Robinson and others. Nonetheless, in critical situations and the Habs need to protect the lead, Scotty Bowman consistently called upon Jarvis to make the necessary plays with and without the puck to ensure victory. Similarly, as an assistant coach for the Canadiens, Jarvis in his quiet unassuming way is having a significant impact on the teams success this season.

The missing element

A recent four game west coast road swing, followed by back to back home games against New Jersey and Ottawa provided a real insight as to how far the Canadiens have developed in terms of becoming a legitimate Stanley Cup contender. The evidence points to a team still in transition, not fully functional in terms of being able to compete on equal footing with the leagues power house teams, as yet.

The Canadiens lost to the Ducks, San Jose and Ottawa, while defeating a persistent nemesis in New Jersey. The commonality in the teams defeats was an inability to break through tight checking, persistent physical punishment in high traffic areas. The Senators, Sharks and the Ducks were able to impose their brand of suffocating defensive positioning combined with an intimidating brand of physical play that at times completely disorientated and stifled the free flowing uptempo offensive game the Habs have utilized to succeed this season. Additionally, the Habs most potent weapon, the powerplay, was completely negated in those three losses. The Habs were 0 for 15 on the powerplay in those three games. In each of those losses, the opposition used an aggressive puck pursuit style of play. The opposition aggressively forechecked Alex Kovalev (the key element to the teams powerplay) giving him little time to set up for a one timing shot, and gave him little room to manouever in terms of distributing the puck to a teammate. Without an effective powerplay, the Habs were unable to adapt and find another element to counter the oppositions tactics.

The defeats illustrated a missing element to the Habs foundation, a lack of a physical component. Statistically, the Habs have some of the league leaders in body checks on defense in Komisarek,Hamrlik and Bouillion, however that physical toughness is lacking amongst the teams forward units. What seperates Anaheim,San Jose and Ottawa from Montreal is that those three teams feature a plethora of third and fourth lineers that do the heavey lifting in terms of imposing a physical dimension on the opposition. Playing a very disciplined game, those teams third and fourth lines would play a north/south style of dump and chase. Get the puck in deep into the Canadiens zone, force the Habs defense to retrieve the puck and then impose a tough physical hit on the player. This tactic was done consistently for the duration of the game. It was effective in disrupting the Habs finesse game. The Habs role players did not adequately respond in kind. The Habs rarely crowded the opposition goal, did not aggressively physically finish off their body checks. In all three losses, the Habs were, on balance, manhandled by the leagues elite teams. In all three instances, the oppositions top tier players were given a free ride, and had time and space to use their offensive creativity to create quality scoring opportunities. The Habs elite players were not given that luxury, in part because, the Habs “energy” lines came up woefully short in the physical dimension of the game.

The Canadiens short coming in terms of an effective response to the oppositions physically tight checking game is due in part to inexeperience, and inadequate personnel to counter the efficent strategy of negating the teams superior offense. The Habs are one of the youngest teams in the league, with very little big game experience. Only the continued exposure to dealing with playoff style hockey will enable them to adapt and learn how to adequately deal with suffocating defenses utilizing tough checking techniques. Secondly, Gainey needs to tweak his personnel to bring in a slightly more gritty style of play amongst the teams third and fourth lines. Players, such as Begin and Kostopolous offer a rugged approach to the game, but have shown an inconsistency in terms of playing a physical dominating style game in game out. Other third and fourth line players like Streit, Ryder,Smolinski play a style that is incongruous to a physical game. The Habs do have some players, such as Lapierre, Latendresse that are capable of playing a rougher style, but they need a veteran presence to provide leadership in that department. Kovalev, has been a effective mentor for the Kostitsyn brothers in terms of teaching the finer points of offense. The Habs need that sort of leadership amongst the forwards for the physical side of the game.

The Habs are moving closer and closer to becoming an elite team, and it is possible that they could go deep into the playoffs this season, based on dominant goaltending and a potent offense, but they are still missing an element to ensure playoff success. Experience, and the addition of some more grit on the bottom half of the roster will help facilitate the Habs into a more multi dimensional team that will make it difficult for the opposition to contain.

Discerning Gainey’s philosophy

Once again Bob Gainey confounded the pundits with another seemingly inexplicable transaction at the NHL’s trade deadline last Tuesday. Despite stating that the Habs were looking to acquire an impact player, the only move Gainey made was to trade the teams starting goaltender , Christobal Huet, to Washington for the Capitals second round draft pick in 2009. The reaction from the media and the fans was ferociously negative. The experts were mystified by the move. Common perception was that Gainey had weakened the team, taking away the veteran presence of Huet, and entrusting the most important position in the game to two very inexperienced young goalies in Price and Halak. Additionally, Gainey had failed to address the teams perceived deficiencies, a lack of grit and secondary scoring amongst the forward units. In a press conference the next day, Gainey further antagonized the media by stating that the Huet deal was a single deliberate deal, not part of a more complex transaction that failed to evolve in terms of acquiring an elite level player, such as the rumoured Marian Hossa. The one constant in Gainey’s tenure as general manager of the Habs, is his against the grain, somewhat peculiar decision making that seems counter intuitive. The reality is that the vast majority of Gainey’s moves are part of a methodical plan to enable the Canadiens to become consistnet contenders on a annual basis.

The Huet deal and Gainey’s decision not to make a more substantial trade were equally calibrated to ensure on going success for the remainder of this season, and for future seasons. In trading Huet, Gainey had determined that the goaltending combo of Price and Halak would be as efficent or superior to Huet’s abilities. More importantly the combined salary of Price and Halak is 1.3 million, a substantial savings from Huet’s 3 million annual salary, and projected salary that he will probably receive on a new contract commencing next season. For Gainey this season is a test run for a young team to gain experience of high pressure playoff games. Price, the goalie of the future needs the exposure now to be battle tested when the Habs legitimately threaten for the cup in the upcoming years.

Gainey wisely decided not to mortgage away the teams future by succumbing to the pressure of the media and fans to make a high profile deal for an impact player that would in essence be only a two month rental. Similarly, trading away some of the clubs blue chip prospects and a high draft pick for a Brad Richards and his heavy contract of 7.8 million a year, would constrict Gainey’s payroll flexibility.

The methodolgy behind Gainey’s tactics in formulating a Stanley Cup contender, is a hybrid system of organically
building within, drafting and developing talent, maintaining maxium payroll flexibility. The core of the team will be weighted upon youth, with short term contracts, supplemented by a couple of veteran players with longer term deals. Gainey’s emphasis is to keep the talent pipeline from the farm system as the organizations central nervous system. Veteran experience will be sacraficed for youth. Veteran players with significant contracts will always be percieved as expendable in exchange for youth and draft picks. (As evidenced in The Rivet trade of a year ago that netted out a first round draft pick and Josh Georges, who is already evolving into a superior defenseman). Gainey recognizes that significant salary committments in a salary cap environment constricts the long term health of a franchise. As a result, non performing personnel with major contractual obligations such as Theodore,Samsanov etc are quickly purged.

It would appear, that Gainey views franchise building as a mechanism of constantly rotating parts. The present youth core of Plekanec, Higgins, Komisarek, Price, and the Kostitsyn brothers is temporal in nature. As they approach ufa status, Gainey will not attempt to resign them all. At present they are valuable assets, based on their skill level in relation to their inexpensive contracts. Gainey, in his typical enigmatic style will determine which players he will hold onto, and proceed to trade off others from the existing core for more obscure prospects and draft picks. As the team grows, Gainey will constantly be prunning back certain present assets for future assets to ensure long term competitive positioning. In a salary cap, parity driven NHL, dynastys are a thing of the past. Virtually all cup contenders will be flawed in some way. Therefore a better than average team will always be in a position to challenge. That is Gainey’s mission statement. High roster turnover, characterized by a preponderance of young players fortified by high potental prospects in the farm system will enable the Habs to have long term capabilities of winning consistently.

With an emphasis to maxium salary cap flexibility and maintence of young talent, it was hardly surprising to understand Gainey’s trade deadline move and non moves. Huet was shipped out because Gainey wanted to get the maxium production out of his young goalies with as minimal salary cost as possible. Gainey fully “gets” the present collective bargaining agreement. With unrestricted free agency available for players at the age of 27, the future for young prospects is now, before they become almost impossibly too expensive to maintain through long term contracts. As a result, the Habs have only two players signed beyond 2009. The Canadiens have one of the leagues deepest and most talented prospects in their farm system. A majority of the Habs current roster is comprised of players that the organization drafted and devloped internally. The Canadiens youth movement will be an annual event, and as long as Gainey is gm, the team will constantly be one of the youngest in terms of average age of its personnel in the league. Gainey will not sacrafice his overall philosophy for a “quick fix” deadline deal. He will not trade away a plethora of young prospects and young talent for an aging veteran with a large contract. Youth, with inexpensive, short term contracts will not be sacraficed to appease the masses demands “to go for it now” approach.

Drafting and development, is a core value of Gainey’s philosophy. Within that context, the Huet trade makes sense. A good player and a seemingly good person was sacraficed to further ensure the long term viability of the team. As a result, Gainey will more often than not be a short term seller, to reap the longer term rewards. Gainey’s vision is presently paying major dividends, and will continue to do so for the future.

What coach Carbonneau needs is Carbonneau the player

In his inaugural press conference after being named the Habs general manager, Bob Gainey stated “expect the unexpected” in terms of his rebuilding the team. Those comments certainly are accurate with regards to the ‘07-08 edition of the Habs. Common perception coming into this season was that the team would excel defensively with the addition of Roman Hamrlik on defense, Carey Price in goal, and veteran Brian Smolinski at center. With the coaching of Guy Carbonneau, one of the premier defensive forwards to ever play in the NHL , conventional thinking was that the Habs defensive game would be beyond reproach. Offense would be the problem. Three quarters of the way through the season, and the exact opposite has occured. The Habs have the third highest goals for total in the league. The team is ranked 20th in terms of goals against. The team has the most proficent powerplay in the league, but has the 21st ranked penalty killing record. Despite the evidence which points to the need for the team to upgrade defensively, the demand is for Gainey to make a move that would further supplement the Habs offense, which is perplexing.

This season, of the 177 goals the Canadiens have given up, 60 have come in the last three minutes of a period. 18 of those goals in the last three minutes of the third period. Goals against in the wanning moments of a period are momentum killers. All season long Carbonneau has attempted through numerous line juggling, to cobble together an effective shutdown checking unit, without success. The importance of a checking unit cannot be over estimated. A common link to all Stanley Cup championship teams is an identifiable checking unit. Detroit had the Draper Maltby combination, New Jersey post season success was defined by the likes of Madden and Pandalfo, last season Anaheim’s checking line lead by Sammy Pahlsson played a major role in neutralizing Ottawa’s top line of Spezza,Alfredson and Heatley.

Time and again, at critical moments of a game, the Canadiens struggle with protecting a lead. An inability to win a key faceoff, maintain puck possession, disrupt the passing lanes of the opposition, block shots, maintain a positionally sound defensive posture, all hallmarks of an effective checking line are not in evidence on a consistent basis for the Canadiens. This weakness has forced Carbonneau to have his top offensive players such as Kovalev,Plekanec, Koivu and Higgins to take on more defensive responsibilities, because the bottom half of the teams forwards have not provided sturdy defensive play. The poor defensive play of the Canadiens at key times has put greater pressure on the Habs goaltenders to bail the team out with a great save.

The price tag to acquire a sound defensive forward is substantially less than acquiring a top tier point a game producing forward. The rumoured requirement to obtain a Hossa, or a Sundin is the Canadiens having to give up Higgins, a prospect and the teams first round 2008 draft pick. A steep price for a player that may only be a two month rental. Given the way the Habs are scoring, an additional scoring forward may prove to be somewhat redundant, particularly if Ryder and Koivu continue to play at the level they are presently showing. A potentially more astute move would be to acquire a defensive centerman who is adept at winning faceoffs (another shortcoming of the team). Acquiring the likes of a Peca/Holik/Stoll or a McClement would not be as costly to the Habs, as Gainey would not have to give up nearly as much to make that sort of deal happen.

Playoff hockey is a different animal than the regular season. Sound play without the puck, winning faceoffs, and ultimately goal prevention take on greater importance in terms of laying the foundation for a succesful playoff run. Adding another goal scoring forward certainly would further add flash to the Habs run and gun offense, but solidifying the Canadiens defensive game with a center out of the Guy Carbonneau mold would ensure greater post season success.

Thoughts on the Habs recent slump

At the allstar break, the Habs were the trendy dark horse pick amongst many hockey experts to possibly represent the eastern conference in the Stanley Cup final. A poor start in February, featuring three straight losses, and suddenly many pundits, quickly backtracked, stating the Habs were a very average team that was vulnerable to missing the playoffs for the 6th time in the past 9 seasons. The truth probably lies somewhere between the two extremes.

The Habs of the first 50 games was not a mirage. The creative offensive flair, up tempo speed game, highlighted by a fluid transition game and quick puck movement was facilitated by a quality core of emerging young talent, insulated with strong contributions from key veteran players in Kovalev,Markov and Hamrlik. The Habs diversity of attributes: the top rated powerplay in the league, reliable/confident goaltending, a consistent disciplined positional play validated the teams ascendancy into the upper echelon of the league.

The Habs recent struggles have more to do with the capricious nature of a long season: injuries to key personnel, mental and physical exhaustion that comes from playing a multitude of games in a compacted time frame. Roman Hamrlik’s absence due to injury, set off a chain reaction of events that contributed in part to the Habs current slump. Without the self assured presence of Hamrlik on the Habs blueline, the team’s solid defensive play eroded. Hamrlik’s 25 minutes of nightly ice time, which featured, consistent high percentage, low risk defensive play in the Habs zone went missing. It forced Carbonneau to give more icetime to Bouillion,Georges and Brisebois, three defensemen that had to play too many minutes for their capabilities on a game to game basis. Their limitations became exposed,the Habs defensive zone coverage, as well as the teams transition game suffered. As an up and coming team, the Habs are not, as yet, a strong enough team to be able to compensate for the loss of one their key performer for a prolonged period of time. In that regard, the Habs are not much different fro a vast majority of teams in this era of parity in the NHL.

A protracted NHL schedule will create peaks and valley’s for all teams. The Habs are one of the youngest teams in the league, maintaining a level equilibrium for an entire season is not easily learned. The immaturity of the team was illustrated in the 5-3 loss to the Rangers on Super bowl Sunday. The Canadiens raced out to an early 3-0 lead, highlighted by Sergi Kostitsyn’s laser like penalty shot goal. Over confident, the team stopped working, went into a defensive shell, and gave up 5 straight goals. Suddenly, the hallmarks of the team: great puck possession, aggressive forecheck, creative high skill plays built on a strong work ethic disappeared in ensuing games. With low energy, the Habs frailites became exposed: too heavy a dependance on one scoring line, shoddy defensive zone coverage, too many players unwilling to pay a physical price to make a play, and an inability to win faceoffs in either the offensive or defensive zones.

The Habs have the personnel to overcome their recent downturn, and to some extent neutralize the liabilities inherent with the team. Higgins recent goals in back to back games is an encouraging sign in terms of giving the Habs a necessary secondary scoring capabilities. Carey Price’s goaltending performance against Florida illustrated his great technique, great puck handling skills and economical movement that enables him to have great net coverage. In Price and Huet, the Habs have a goaltending tandem that few teams can match. There are still worriesome issues with the team. Koivu’s non descript play, a 20th ranked penalty killing record, poor faceoff winning percentage and a lack of a true efficent checking line have all been issues that have plagued the team all season long. The team is still missing some pieces of the puzzle. Nonetheless, the team has a reserve of young talent and prospects that will continue to develop, and give gm Gainey various trade options to address the clubs shortcomings.

The potential achilles’ heel for the Canadiens

The lack of consistent offensive production from Koivu and Higgins is perceived by many to be the most significant issue that could derail the Canadiens capabilities of a succesful playoff run. The theory is, that without Koivu and Higgins providing a secondary scoring threat, the Habs are morphing into a one line offensive team. As such, the opposition will begin to devise strategies to contain the Habs most dangerous offensive unit, the Plekanec line, thus neutralizing the engine that drives the teams offense. There is some merit to this perception. Historically, teams that are heavily dependent on one line to provide the bulk of the offense usually do not achieve much post season success. Theories abound as to the ineffectiveness of Higgins and Koivu. Undisclosed injuries, lack of chemistry with linemate Michael Ryder, erosion of confidence, age catching up with Koivu as he enters the twilight of his career. All the above conjectures may hold some merit. Perhaps, though, the root cause of the problem is due to the lack of an effective checking line for the Habs.

Last season, the Habs had an effective checking unit in Bonk, Johnson and Perezhogin, that took on the role of checking the oppositions top offensive units. The unit had success, as all three members of the line had a positive plus minus rating, significant given the fact that as a team, the Habs had a massive minus number in that category. This season, with all three players no longer on the team, Carbonneau has not been able to find an efficent checking line. As evidenced by the numbers compiled by “behind the net.ca”, amongst all Hab forwards, Higgins and Koivu consistently match up against the best forwards in the league. The quality of opposition index indicates that only Smolinski, Dandenault, Begin and or Kostopolous are the only other Hab forwards entrusted with 5 on 5 icetime against elite level opponents. The problem for the Canadiens is the fact that the Smolinski checking line has been less than sterling in shutting down advesaries. The struggles of the checking line is illuminated in three categories that define puck possession and territorial advantage: giveaway/takeaway ratio, a players plus minus record, and the corsi index, ( a ratio based on shots directed at the opposition goal versus shot directed at your own teams net).
player takeaway/giveaway t/- corsi index
Begin 1.75 1 -10
Kostopolous 1.22 -8 -4
Smolinski 0.50 -5 -8.2
Dandenault 1.21 -9 -14.1

As evidenced, the above mentioned players have badly struggled to keep the puck out of the Habs zone,and more importantly out of the teams net. As a result, Carbo has given greater defensive responsibilites to Koivu and Higgins, which compromises the offensive capabilities of the two players.

Added defensive responsibilities, do not totally absolve the captain and assistant captain of their substandard offensive contributions. Most worriesome is the fact that Koivu simply does seem to be able to do the things that he used to do so well. Koivu seems to have lost a step. He is dependent on utilizing his stick to gain leverage to buy time to make a play. Unfortunately under the new NHL rules putting a stick around the mid section of an opponent is now a penalty, and Koivu has taken frequent penalties, exposing his declining foot speed. Additionally, Koivu is frequently the first player off the ice on a line change, perhaps indicating a conditioning/stamina issue. Both Higgins and Koivu have not shown a consistent drive to the net. Higgins has often been guilty of passing off the puck and then remaining stationary, as opposed to using his speed to find a dead zone in behind the oppositions defense. Too often his shots are low percentage, taken from the perimeter. Puck retrevial, and strength on their skates, both hallmarks of Koivu and Higgins are not an asset for either player at the moment.

For the Canadiens to have any degree of post season success, both Higgins and Koivu need to recapture their play from the first half of the ‘06-07 season, when they were the most dangerous offensive weapons for the Canadiens. Perhaps, Kovalev can pass on his secret for reinvigorating Higgins and Koivu, if not, despite having alot of assets, the Habs could be vulnerable.